Oil touts

posted by Rob on May 16, 2008 01:14 PM

GasPump.jpg

Here's an idea: buy up oil as soon as it becomes available and then sell it to other people at a profit. Sounds a bit farfetched, doesn't it. We're used to the idea of investment bubbles in most areas: bubbles being caused when buying and selling become more about profit than use. Which is to say, when people buy a house or a ton or copper not because they plan to use it, but because they plan to sell it again at an opportune moment. But somehow you don't expect people to do that with oil. You get the impression that it will be used up as quickly as it's available. But the ever excellent Jon Taplin, whose blog I find distinctly more-ish, sees just such a speculative environment. I'm glad to have stumbled upon his explanation, because the record profits of oil companies have had me baffled for a while. Usually, when the cost of your raw materials go up, your profits are squeezed. But not if the price rise is down to stockpiling and tactical selling. See here and here for more.

And if you're interested in such things, read his excellent thoughts (which coincidentally mirror my own) about a catastrophic Republican meltdown in the offing here.

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Comments: 2


Locally, unleaded has just jumped to 112.9p a litre, and diesel is at 125.9p, and that is ontop of the 2p rise the garages stuck on the day before the strike at the oil refinary.
Seems to me that traders are already speculating, and I hope they get their fingers burnt.


Most of BP's and Shell's profits come from the upstream (exploration and production of crude oil) end, rather than refining and marketing. So when the commodity price goes up, the trick is to try to stop your supply chain putting their prices up so you can keep all the benefits. It doesn't actually affect your cost base directly, as your own oil feeds your refineries. Most of the majors are long in production not refining and marketing capacity.

Despite heart-rending whinging up here in the European Energy Capital ((c) Aberdeen City Council) , it would seem that the oil majors are having a certain amount of success in this.

As for opportunistic hoarding and selling - there's a long and rich tradition of oil traders doing just that.

I'm off to read Mr Taplin's blog now!

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