U.S. Inflation

posted by Rob on March 14, 2008 07:42 AM

I don't know what percentage of cheap goods sold in Walmart are made in China. I remember reading it was over a third some time back. Isn't it amazing you can do your manufacturing halfway round the world more cheaply than at home. I don't know how common that is, but it made think about the effect the wilting dollar will have on U.S. inflation. My guess is that in most inflationary situations, foreign imports are luxury goods, as far as the average household is concerned. So you switch to home-grown products. But America has been using China as its industrial heartland for some years now. And only China's policy of reinvesting the dollars it receives back into the U.S. has kept their exchange rates favourable for that situation to continue. So what happens now as the U.S. is forced to cut interest rates (making U.S. investment less attractive) and weakening the dollar? The cost of Chinese goods will already be rising. And as it rises, it will increase the price not just of foreign luxuries but of a thousand everyday items. Which will hit poor families hardest. They're also the families who rely on stores like Walmart for jobs. Did shifting exchange rates ever target the cost of living so accurately? Add in the fact that the sub-prime crisis is also most worrying for those with low incomes and I think that this is not a good time to be poor in America.

Maybe it will play out like post-War Britain. This time next year, America will have a major recession on its hands and for the first time in a long while a Democratic majority in both houses and a Democrat president. Maybe for America, just as it was for us, the time will be right for universal healthcare and a strengthening of the social safety net. (That's if the processes Naomi Klein talks of in the Shock Doctrine still allow some good to come from a crisis.)

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Comments: 5


It's very common. Most of our common goods--clothes, bookshelves, toys, etc--are manufactured in China or Pakistan or the Philippines or Malaysia. Do you not know about the backlash in the US over Nike and the Gap utilizing $0.40-per-hour employees in the third world to make sneakers and jeans? It's a big cause for people in Seattle and San Francisco.

I think the semi-rich are going to be unlucky in the coming years too, however. A lot of people with near-six-figure salaries began living way, way beyond their means after 9/11, buying million-dollar houses in an inflated market, refinancing, and spending the equity on Lexus SUVs. They might have been able to afford to cut back and save their houses, except that with a recession come layoffs, and these people's jobs are going to get cut just as the poor's are. And they may be drowning in debt that's far more unmanageable than poor people who can't get enough credit to build up serious debt.

It's gonna be ugly. Who knew a guy with an MBA could get us into so much trouble?


Katharine, I read about that backlash in Naomi Klein's last big book, No Logo. And I'm afraid you're probably right. I think when the middle-class get hit too, that counts as a depression. So maybe I shouldn't have been talking about post-War Britain, but about a New New Deal in a few year's time.


In a way, it is our fault for being so materialistic, but also the manufacturing companies fault for brainwashing us into wanting their goods - advertising has come a long way with the rise of TV viewing, and we are conditioned to buy what we can't afford from a very early age.
My parents struggled but in their day there were so many more tax breaks for the middle classes, MIRAS relief, married man's allowance, lower NI. As well as lower energy bills and council rates. And white goods laster so much longer. My mother's washing machine was still going strong 20 years after she had bought it, while I'm on my third in 10yrs. Video players have been supeceeded by DVDs, high tower PCs by laptops. Today there is built in redundancy to keep us buying more. Clothing simply falls apart at the seams.
Family holidays (foreign or otherwise) are seen as a 'right' and cost us thousands every year.
Is it any wonder that we are all living way beyond our means.


One other point is that although technology is so much cheaper now, compared what it cost while still under development in the second half of the 20th Century, it is a false premise that it is cheap enough for us to be able to afford it all, or even a fraction of it (especially bearing in mind that we need to upgrade it every 2-5yrs).
Our grandparents saved up for a radio and a TV. We have a similar disposable income as they had, but our list includes PSPs, DVDs, PCs...you get my drift. We are drowning in a sea of debt due to the sheer quantity of expensive electronic goods cluttering up our homes, but which are deemed essential in today's western society.


Naomi, I couldn't agree with you more. I'm appalled at how disposable everything is supposed to be in the US. I fight it! I keep clothes for years instead of buying new ones every season (and frankly I can't believe that the average person can afford to do it any other way). If I had children I'd buy them wooden toys, not plastic ones. I keep my technology not until obsolescence, but until it wears out. The ubiquity of advertising has only conditioned us for more advertising, and take it from me, even living a TV-free life does not keep you away from it.

And Rob, yeah, I don't think depression is a wild word to be using at this time. Maybe we could compare to post-war Germany? We might have to break down our government in order to rebuild one that works for the people instead of just for the politicians and the rich.

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