U.S. Economic Problems
posted by Rob on 26 Mar 2008
Dear Brainy People in Television, I would like you to make a program which explains the following: 1) The Glass-Steagall Act and its gutting in recent years 2) The operation of the Shadow Banking sector 3) US Deficit Spending and the expansion of consumer credit 4) US/Chinese balance of trade and reciprocal investment.
Pretty dry stuff I'm sure all that sounds. But one of the weird types of investment that's had the markets in a flap lately are CDSs (Credit Default Swaps). As best as I can understand, they're bets that someone will go bust. You can use them as insurance or you can just speculate with them. There are around $43 Trillion worth of CDSs out there. (Yes, that's Trillion with a 'T'.) That's far too much debt for any government to step in and take care of and the next company who finds themselves in a similar predicament to Bear Stearns could end up triggering waves of defaults in that market.
The Shadow Banking sector is also of interest because the last time there was a giant banking meltdown in the States, following the stock market crash of 1929, the Glass & Steagall Acts were put in place to make sure banks couldn't overextend themselves so dangerously. Glass-Steagall endured until the Nineties when rules were reinterpreted and banks were indirectly permitted to create quasi-autonomous offshoot companies that did lots of things that banks do, but didn't fall under normal banking regulations. I believe that's how such vast sums of money came to be lent to sub-prime borrowers without regulators having a say.
And I've talked in the past about how China does so much manufacturing for the U.S. that the only way they can keep their exchange rates favourable is to invest a sizable chunk of their revenues back into the States at generously low interest rates, thus inadvertently helping to inflate various investment bubbles.
I admit it all sounds rather arcane, but I wouldn't mind knowing a bit more about how the finance markets came to be hanging by their fingertips from a cliff-top with various pension funds, mortgages and share portfolios dangling by a thread beneath them. Unless we're very lucky, we might all end up knowing a lot more about CDSs, CDOs and the moral hazard of bank bailouts, courtesy of the evening news.
Also, something I find a bit weird about this meltdown: when I check Google News for the U.S., there's rarely any mention about the economy tanking. When I checked yesterday, the only economic story was under Business (it didn't make it to the top 40 biggest general stories) and it was trumpeting the news that mortgage re-financing was up, as though that was the indicator that deserved the focus. Isn't it strange that the UK newspapers are hyperventilating about the U.S. economy, but from what I can tell, the U.S. media aren't making much of the fact yet? (Or perhaps Google News is just broken.)
Comments: 1

I am too uninformed about the economy and the banking industry and so forth to have much to say to the above, except THANKS A LOT, RICH WHITE MEN, but I think it must be Google News's problem, not our MSM. I read CNN.com most days and there are a few new articles every week about the tanking economy. ("Is the Worst Over or Is It Just Beginning?" "Is Your Job Recession-Proof?") They have this new feature on the business section of the site called "Issue #1", and Issue #1 is the monetary predicament of the average American these days - gas prices, foreclosures, inflation, etc.
As you said yourself, this is pretty dry stuff, and I'm guessing that the MSM is only reporting on the obvious troubles in the economy, not the difficult stuff like what you've brought up. Since we're all really stupid over here in 'Murca.
Posted by: KatharineC | March 27, 2008 01:40 PM