I think you were right - more and more over the last couple of months I've been listening to US analysts using the 'D' word in hushed, apologetic tones...

I don't understand economics at all, but even I can see that we're headed for a terrible recession at least. It was explained to me that financial leaders tend to try and stave off a recession for as long as possible, but if it's inevitable, it hits far harder...which is what's happening now. We've been staving for over a year, but the housing market is still falling, falling, falling (who knows when it will bottom out?) and it's affecting other sectors in ways that most Americans didn't understand (I didn't until I figured out that the BANKS are losing vast, titanic amounts of money as the citizens lose their houses). The stock market is still rallying, but I'm not sure that's as important an indicator as it was in the 80's--during the Clinton era we became so much more consumer-focused that the credit market is where the economists need to be looking for answers. I am greatly worried about a depression as well.

I frankly think it's a good thing socially that home prices have started to fall, because "starter homes" have vanished in a way that makes the typical American Dream thoroughly impossible for average folk, but the economic consequences will be disastrous.

I don't know how I missed your previous post, Rob, but it's brilliant. I have to note, though, that if Giuliani wins the Republican nomination, I think he will be our next President.

I'm no economics major, but from the way business went this year where I work, I can *feel* the economy tanking, and frankly am surprised that anyone else in the country here is surprised.

I hope your prediction about the Republican party is correct, at least.